14 aug. 2010

Abbas bristande fredsvilja

Nyligen utpekade NY Times Mahmoud Abbas till en fredsduva och Netanyahu till hindret för fred i Mellanöstern. Det har skapat reaktioner. Omri Ceren på Mere Rhetoric går bland annat igenom Abbas CV:
First the unremarkable, banal, veritably quotidian spectacle of Israel’s moderate partner in peace glorifying mass murderers. Palestinian President Abbas publicly mourned the death of Munich massacre mastermind Abu Daoud. He personally honored the three terrorists who murdered Rabbi Meir Avshalom Hai, an Israeli father of seven. He repeatedly celebrated Dalal Mughrabi, who murdered 13 Israeli schoolchildren and 25 other Israeli civilians. He glorifies “resistance” and incites rioting. He peddles anti-Jewish organ theft libels and even sets up formal committees to investigate those bigoted fantasies.

Barry Rubin går igenom bakgrunden till att Abbas vägrar inleda seriösa fredsförhandlingar:
--He has no control or authority over Fatah, a group in which he has almost no direct followers, but is the real power behind the PA. This is the group that would never let its nominal leader make a two-state solution. Most of the Fatah leadership is hardline. Some don't want to make any deal that would block them from trying to destroy Israel in future. Others are afraid to do so. The number one problem is PA politics.

--Palestinian public opinion tends to be hardline. And why should that be surprising? It is conditioned by years of indoctrination to be that way on top of what existed beforehand. The PA has been pumping out hardline propaganda now for 16 years.

--Then there is Hamas which enjoys somewhere between 25 and 30 percent support in the PA-ruled areas. Even the tiniest concession, merely holding direct talks, will be used by Hamas to claim Abbas is commiting treason. And joined with some elements in Fatah this hardline coalition would be deadly for the PA, and perhaps for Abbas personally.

--Moreover, Hamas controls the Gaza Strip. This little detail seems to be left out a lot, as if the PA's making an agreement was in any way binding on almost half the territory it is claiming to control! It would be like making a deal with South Korea or West Germany and claiming it applied to all of Korea or Germany.

Incidentally, it is almost never pointed out that Abbas's term in office ended in January 2009 and he keeps extending it without elections. Why? Because if elections in the West Bank and Gaza Strip were held Hamas would win them. This shows how unstable is the regime with which Israel is supposed to make a peace based on massive unilateral concessions. If elections were to be held after a two-state agreement was implemented, Hamas would win, immediately reject the agreement, and return to war. This is rather significant for any discussion of Israel-Palestinian peace, don't you think?

--Then there are the external forces like Iran and Syria that are dead-set on making anyone who makes with Israel just plain dead. If Abbas were to negotiate a deal they would do everything in their power (in line with Fatah hardliners and Hamas) to destroy that agreement and overthrow Abbas.

Väldigt intressant att faktiskt läsa en analys av arabisk politik istället för den svårt ointellektuella svartmålningen av Israel man ser dagligen i media.

Slutligen kommenterar Israels amerikambassadör Michael Oren:
In fact, Mr. Netanyahu has called for face-to-face negotiations with President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority without preconditions for more than a year; the proximity talks were Mr. Abbas’s device for avoiding direct talks.

The editorial also empathizes with Mr. Abbas’s doubts whether Israel will address “Palestinian concerns about borders, security, refugees and the future of Jerusalem.” This statement, however, ignores Israel’s attempts, in 2000 and 2008, to address all of these issues definitively only to be rebuffed by Palestinian leaders, including Mr. Abbas.

Benjamin Netanyahu är ingen duva, men han vill ha fred. Det vill inte Mahmoud Abbas och det palestinska ledarskapet. Och även om de vill det är deras manöverutrymme starkt begränsat.

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